Variance Surfin'

So how good at poker do you think you really are?

The cool dudes over at Evplusplus.com came up with a variance simulator.

Let's say you're crushing no limit cash games at 3 big blinds/100 hands over 100K hands.

Here are 100 different possibilities how your actual profit graph could turn out:

So, there's one lucky guy that turns +$13K profit at $0.50/$1 no limit hold'em 

(snorting coke off of a model's ass and negotiating sponsorship deals) 

while an equally skilled dude (kicked out by his wife because of his gambling problem and now contemplating suicide) could have lost -$10K over the same sample size...

It's a very, very brutal game.

Next time you feel like the ultimate poker genius or like the dirtiest degenerate gambler, chances are that you're only surfing the waves of variance...

A Simple Guide To Super Turbo Sit 'n Go Strategy

If you like the idea of online poker but find it hard to put up the hours or the brain activity; there's still hope:

The Super Turbo Sit 'n Go
(It's over before you know it)

Multi-tabling these with only a basic strategy and a fine rakeback deal is a sweet way to make some hard-earned cash...

Basic rule: One Mouse Click = One Hand
(push or fold, don't even think about doing anything fancy)

The starting stack is only 10 big blinds. Do not panic! Shoving robust hands (preferably in late position) is all you have to do for now. Let your opponents knock each other out while you keep it tight.
Once you get in spots with effective stacks of about 3 big blinds you can loosen up considerably. Shove about everything (preferably against as few opponents as possible).
Try to keep your own stack above 3 big blinds at all times.
Keep an eye on stack sizes (and, if your into it, player tendencies) to find spots that offer a good risk/reward ratio. Think about what will happen with your (and your opponents) stack size when you choose to push, fold or call a shove. Planning your moves around this idea is the key to winning.
Finally, be more willing to shove around and beyond the money bubble...
That's all you need to know!

Good luck at the tables

MiniFTOPS #26 - Quick Busto

The Full Tilt MiniFTOPS tournament series is well under way.
Last night I played in Event #26, the no limit hold'em 6-max tournament.

Just one of those nights, all prepared for hours of heavy tournament action... All done well before the first break. Nothing left to do but hanging on in idle time, wondering what the hell went wrong once again... Anyway, there's still the $1million guaranteed Main Event on Sunday... Come on, 'One Time'!

Rush Strategy Is A Three Letter Word

STD is the only abbreviation you ever need to know before hitting the Rush tables at Full Tilt Poker. If you're thinking cheap back-alley whores and a scratchy crotch: go see a doctor, dude! This simple STD is a pain-free way to turn yourself into a Rush-crushing money-machine...

Just stick to these three simple rules:

1. Strong hands should be played strong; no need to mess around. It's a fast-paced game, so play it fast. 
2. Tight is right; the quick fold button make's it easy to stay away from tricky spots. In case of doubt, just fold now.
3. Donkeys do donate; mixing it up with the clueless will result in a warm, happy feeling and a fat bankroll.

Now go crush the Rush...
Good luck at the tables!

Up Your Ante

After an early bust-out of  the Full Tilt Poker MiniFTOPS#10
(just another case of flopping the nuts and getting rivered...)
I stumbled upon an amazing poker training site:

Chris Olaafson's Up Your Ante: The Revolutionary Poker Training System

Three words:
Amazing! Sensational! Mind Blowing!

"Chris Olaafson is the man behind some of the greatest poker minds on earth. This is his secret training scheme. Shown only to some of the world’s greatest poker minds Chris has decided to bring his talent, charisma and intimidating poker mind to the world. Introducing Chris Olaafson’s “Up Your Ante – The Revolutionary Poker Training System’  - are you  ready to be trained by God?"

Soul Crushed

Six weeks ago I was considered by many (mainly me) as the illest baller on the Brussels East Side...

Playing 2000+ hands of 200NL Rush Poker a day and winning a steady 4 big blinds/100 hands (aka 'making a shit load of money!')...

4tabling Rush Poker while running good:
Double Rainbow all the way, dude!

High on money.
This is it.
My moment, my time.
Earning my ticket to the sun. Finally I got it all figured out. Poker is easy. So long, fuckers! Rakeback alone is more than enough to cover living expenses in sunny Cambodia...

200NL 6-max Rush Poker is popular with numerous Full Tilt Red Pro's. But I was fearless. I'm better. I'm the best. The pro's are in it for rakeback benefits. Grinding out thousands of hands a day leaves little room for surprising moves. Dudes like Roland Specht play like a Catholic priests wet dream (aka 'ass tight'). No worries, I got it all figured out.

Life is easy,
just cruisin' trough summer while building my bankroll...

But after about 20000 hands, the close encounters with the dark side started. Small missteps and large ill-timed bluffs, while grinding at 500 hands/hour, can have serious consequences...
Losing several $200 buy-ins in less time than you can spell
m-o-t-h-e-r-f-u-c-k-e-r
hurts as hell.
But no time to dwell on the pain just now.
It's all part of the master plan.
Study hard (at DeucesCracked).
Regular work outs at the gym.
Play more hands.
Ride out variance.
Keep calm and carry on at all times.

Still making money.
At little less than before,
but still cruising...

Then along came Praz Bansi...
The first day I met him at the tables I suffered a -$1K loss...
Probably coincidence but, nevertheless, his presence at 200NL Rush freaked me out.

If Praz Bansi plays this game, how many other regulars in here are world class professionals???

The next few days that question kept bouncing 'round my mind.
It's hard to focus while confused and stressed out.
My ego wounded and my bankroll bleeding...
Paranoid and fearful,
I burned trough many more $200 buy-ins...
But still struggling to stay strong.

You know the drill:
Stay positive.
Study more.
Work out harder.
Run faster. Breath. Think. Swim. Recover.
Play more.
Stay calm at all times.
Play perfect.

Keep losing.
(repeat)
Lose some more.
(and repeat)
(and...)

Until there's only misery left.
Is it really possible to suck this hard?
Sick to the stomach,
staring into the abyss.
Tilt and pain lurking in my brain.
Confidence and self-esteem long gone...
Nothing more than a dirty, degenerate gambler.
Recovering gambling losses by gambling more is *not* recommended.

After losing over 15 buy-ins I did the only sensible thing left to do:
I quit poker and drove straight to the first coffeeshop across the Dutch border.

200NL Rush poker took my money and
crushed my soul


And that's the story of my summer...

Silly hopes and dreams shred to pieces,
my soul crushed by bigger and better players.
A little less exercise and less studying
while indulging, with renewed dedication, in
my all-time favorite past time
of smoking weed...

Still, even when writing this,
I keep an eye on the 100NL Rush lobby...
Scrolling trough the player list, looking for weak spots and fresh opportunities.
Maybe, just maybe, I could do it again.
Grinding out 100NL for a while,
building up confidence, sharpening my moves, fattening my bankroll...
Preparing for another shot to mix it up with all the tough dudes at 200NL...

Never mind that ticket to the sun,
fuck the money.

All I want to do is beat the game,
be better,
be the best
and, more than anything,
crush souls!

Fish 2.0:
A fish with a vengeance....

Fish 2.0

Here we go again...