Sunday, October 25, 2009

Out Of Luck

A friendly home game of poker on a rainy Saturday night.
Sounds like a plan.
...and it was:
a great game.
But after about 6 hours I ended up right were I started. Break-even.
Although I took down numerous small pots all night long; in the big pots it all went wrong
(over and over again).
An unspeakable run of filthy cards turned my stone cold nuts into a split pot
(twice).
... and a miraculous one-outer got hit on the river
(leaving me hanging on in quiet desperation).
*
To turn my luck around I decided to skip the daily self-inflicted pain of playing 8 Sit 'n Go's.
So I started playing $0.25/$0.50 6max cash games on Full Tilt.
There's a series of great 6max- strategy videos by Jon Ettinger on PokerVT.
After watching the first few, I just had to try out my newly discovered wisdom.
I had a great start...
 right until my pocket kings ran into a flopped set of sevens.
Acceptable variance.
No worries, slowly I made my way back up...
*
Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 338683

The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $53.80

BB: $52.25

UTG: $34.05

MP: $14.75

CO: $76.55

Hero (BTN): $48.75

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BTN with 2 of clubs 2 of hearts

3 folds, Hero raises to $1.75, SB raises to $6, 1 fold, Hero calls $4.25

The SB is a very loose, aggressive player.
I saw him make this play a few times: 3betting pre-flop and donk-betting about full pot on any flop. The implied odds for deuces against his playing style are great: hit a set and stack that dude or get out quick and quietly. 
There's absolutely nothing that can go wrong here.

Flop: ($12.50) 5 of diamonds 3 of diamonds 2 of spades (2 players)

SB bets $10, Hero raises to $42.75 all in, SB calls $32.75

Bing Blang Blaow; I got him right were I wanted.  
Happily I shove my remaining stack.
Finally a perfectly executed perfect plan!

Turn: ($98.00) T of diamonds (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: ($98.00) 7 of diamonds (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $98.00

SB shows T of hearts T of spades (three of a kind, Tens)

... ouch ... (silence) ... 

Hero shows 2 of clubs 2 of hearts (three of a kind, Twos)

SB wins $95.00

(Rake: $3.00)
*
So,
I study and I play.
Then I study more and play some more.
After that I study and I ...
Somehow it doesn't pay off.
Got all the moves
but no $$$

People keep telling me about the long run.

Overcoming variance and win steady over a considerable amount of hands and time.

How considerable?
How long?

Might run out of luck long before the long run.
(or out of hope)

Should I turn to religion?
Slaughter a cow, dance down the street dressed in feathers, howl to the moon or burn incense for the Great Buddah?

... Sell my soul to the Devil maybe?

For a nice deposit bonus and Special Soul Points (for free gear) I might consider it. Should be Ev+

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